Week 3 Preview
Games to watch
Ranked by matchup score: good teams, close lines
Adel ADM (2-0, #5 4A) is favored by 2.0 at home over Alleman North Polk (1-1, #6 4A), 55% to win, total 55.0.
10 meetings since 1988, series tied; Alleman North Polk won the last one 38–37 in 2025. Alleman North Polk has won 3 straight.
Pella (1-1, #9 4A) is favored by 3.0 at home over Eldridge North Scott (1-1, #10 4A), 57% to win, total 38.5.
1 meeting since 2025, Pella leads 1–0; Pella won the last one 10–3 in 2025.
Waukee (0-2, #14 5A) is favored by 3.5 at home over CR Kennedy (1-1, #16 5A), 60% to win, total 48.0. CR Kennedy’s playoff odds: 61% with a win, 23% with a loss.
1 meeting since 2025, Waukee leads 1–0; Waukee won the last one 23–15 in 2025.
Dubuque Wahlert (1-1, #7 3A) is favored by 1.5 on the road over Decorah (1-1, #16 4A), 53% to win, total 50.0. Decorah’s playoff odds: 77% with a win, 52% with a loss.
2 meetings since 2020, series tied; Decorah won the last one 19–13 in 2025.
Sioux City East (2-0, #9 5A) is favored by 10.0 at home over Bishop Heelan (1-1, #4 3A), 75% to win, total 45.5.
87 meetings since 1950, Bishop Heelan leads 52–34; Sioux City East won the last one 42–41 in 2025.
Waukee Northwest (0-2, #7 5A) is favored by 12.5 at home over Iowa City High (1-1, #15 5A), 80% to win, total 58.5. Iowa City High’s playoff odds: 92% with a win, 59% with a loss.
1 meeting since 2025, Waukee Northwest leads 1–0; Waukee Northwest won the last one 49–13 in 2025.
Most on the line
Playoff odds with a win vs. with a loss, from the simulation
| CR Kennedy at Waukee | 61% win · 23% loss | 38 pts |
| Grinnell vs Carlisle | 58% win · 21% loss | 37 pts |
| Ankeny Centennial vs Des Moines Lincoln | 77% win · 40% loss | 37 pts |
| Bettendorf vs CR Prairie | 57% win · 21% loss | 36 pts |
| Urbandale vs WDM Valley | 66% win · 29% loss | 36 pts |
| Waukee vs CR Kennedy | 46% win · 10% loss | 36 pts |
| LeMars vs Sioux Center | 63% win · 28% loss | 34 pts |
| Des Moines Roosevelt vs Ankeny | 40% win · 6% loss | 34 pts |
Where we split from BCMoore
Largest gaps between our line and Brent Moore’s
| Iowa City High at Waukee Northwest | Waukee Northwest -12.5 vs Iowa City High -18.0 | 30.3 |
| Ankeny at Des Moines Roosevelt | Ankeny -39.0 vs Ankeny -15.0 | 24.1 |
| Sioux City West at Sioux City North | Sioux City North -1.5 vs Sioux City West -22.5 | 23.9 |
| Bondurant-Farrar at Newton | Newton -24.5 vs Newton -1.5 | 22.8 |
| Oskaloosa at Mount Pleasant | Mount Pleasant -25.0 vs Mount Pleasant -42.0 | 16.9 |
| Glenwood at Creston | Glenwood -11.0 vs Creston -4.5 | 15.6 |
Still unbeaten
WDM Dowling 2-0, Southeast Polk 2-0, Ankeny 2-0, Iowa City West 2-0, Sioux City East 2-0, CR Prairie 2-0, Dallas Center-Grimes 2-0, Davenport Central 2-0, Des Moines Roosevelt 2-0
CR Xavier 2-0, Sergeant Bluff-Luton 2-0, Adel ADM 2-0, Fort Dodge 2-0, Clear Creek-Amana 2-0, Carlisle 2-0, Glenwood 2-0, Waverly-Shell Rock 2-0, Spencer 2-0, Grinnell 2-0, Boone 2-0, Sioux City West 1-0
Generated from the model, the playoff simulation and the archive; no human wrote these sentences. For entertainment only.